India’s excessive and overreaction after the annihilation of 19 soldiers by the Kashmiri freedom fighters inside the Brigade Headquarters of Uri in India-occupied Kashmir ultimately boomeranged India, particularly its ultra-propagandist Norendra Modi. Modi and his core internal backer RAW childishly roared, as if, Indian soldiers would swoop on Pakistan and smash it to dust with in a carefree manner. Modi and his accomplices posed, as if, their army could personnel overrun and capture not only Azad Kashmir, but also whole of Pakistan. Modi even went twice inside the so-called war room to declare war against Pakistan. But the grandiloquence of Modi and his accomplices remained in words and merged to air, as they U-turned from such venture apprehending the ground realities and the incalculable cost that would cause to India itself. So it was neither a mercy towards Pakistan nor the so-called ‘strategy of restraint,’ a theory that India uses to soothe it’s overambitious and over-communalized nationals. India simply wraps its own weakness due to the deficiencies of its military might and international support towards Pakistan.
India’s rebuff and intimidation along with the strongest voice against Pakistan renewed after the murder of 19 soldiers inside the most secured Brigade Headquarters at Uri. Modi declared all those responsible for such massacre wouldn’t remain unpunished. None of India’s allies singanlled India to engage in war with Pakistan. They, as usual, condemned the attack and suggested to avoid war and settle the dispute through dialogue.
On the other hand, India’s giant neighbor China openly sided with Pakistan. China even extended its veto on India’s move to designate Jaish-e-Mohammad Chief Masood Azhar as terrorist, who, according to India is the mastermind of attacking Pathankot Base Indian Air Force that left seven army personnel dead and 22 wounded, early this year. Though his involvement was not independently ascertained//proved, the Indian went to UN to brand him as a terrorist. Extension of a Chinese veto amid the highest tension of war between Pakistan and India has undoubtedly been a signal towards India. Even Soldiers of Russian Federation landed in Pakistan to participate in a 2-weeklong joint exercise with their Pakistan counterparts. Memorable that India acted as the lackey of the defunct Soviet Union during the whole cold war era against America.
Pakistan also bagged very positive support from the Muslim world. Pakistan’s closest neighbor Iran openly declared that in any war with India, it would remain with Pakistan. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, above all OIC (Organization of Islamic Countries) extended their strong support to Pakistan. OIC Secretary General Iyad Madani, endorsed Pakistan’s position on Kashmir asking India to stop killing the Kashmiri Muslims. India’s bid to isolate Pakistan from international community thus utterly failed.
On the other hand, the ground realities in India are more horrible. The Uri attack unveiled the utter weakness of Indian soldiers that also upset Modi and his Indian warmongers. It is difficult to believe how the Kashmiri freedom fighters could intrude into the most secured Army Brigade Headquarters and how only four freedom fighters could kill 19 soldiers. Moreover, Pakistani soldiers to retaliate India’s so-called ‘surgical strike’ launched attack on the Indians along the line of control, killed over a dozen of Indian soldiers, captivated one alive and brought him to Pakistan. Another awesome report is that apprehending the possibility of war with Pakistan over 40 thousand Indian soldiers filled applications seeking leave. So it will be suicidal go engage war with Pakistan with such soldiers who are coward and morally down. Military experts opine in any war hundreds of thousand Indian soldiers may either flee away from the battlefield or surrender to Pakistan to save their lives.
Besides, Indian soldiers are equipped with outdated weapons. It was disclosed by former Indian army chief General VK Singh, who in a letter on March 12, 2012, conveyed the then Prime Minister Monmohan Singh the shaky condition of the Indian defense establishment. He wrote: “The state of the major (fighting) arms i.e. Mechanized forces, artillery, air defense, infantry and special forces, as well as the engineers and signals, are indeed alarming.”
He added, the army’s entire tank fleet is “devoid of critical ammunition to defeat enemy tanks”, while the air defense system is “97% obsolete and it doesn’t give the deemed confidence to protect… from the air”. India desperately tries to mend these loopholes, which may take not only years, but even decades.
Many experts believe it would not be easy for India to face Pakistan, as it has robust air defense systems. The BBC says, the crucial and more serious question is whether India has the capacity and intelligence to carry out targeted strikes or wage limited war inside Pakistan territory.
The problem with Modi government, according to an Indian defense analyst Ajai Shukla, is: “It (India) has escalated the rhetoric (against Pakistan) but has not created military capabilities and planning structure to respond in a more forceful manner (against terror attacks) than the previous government.
“Now the government appears to have become a prisoner of its own bluster. The danger of being trapped in your own rhetoric is that you can be forced to an aggressive response and then be ill-equipped to handle the escalation.” says analyst Shukla.
All these realities, shaky and cowardice character of the Indian military personnel, deficiencies and loopholes in arsenal, non-supportive role of its trusted allies, scared Modi to face Pakistan. To bury its hollowness and impasse Indian people, Indian policymakers adopt a tricky duplicity of so-called strategy of restraint.
Modi’s desperate dream to expose his 3rd-world country India as so-called superpower was severely stumbled. He even failed to scare the psyche of the Pakistani people. The language that Pakistan Prime Minister Muhammad Nawaz Sharif and Army Chief General Raheel Sharif used apprehended Modi that Pakistan might go to any length to face India’s minimum sort of attack that might cause huge havoc inside India. Indian intelligence agencies are aware that any war with Pakistan or China will escalate secessionist wars in various parts of India including, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Kashmir, Manipur, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Tripura and even in Punjab and Indian army may not be able to fight in so many fronts, which would lead India to subdivision and fragmentation.
So India had no other alternative, but to fold its tail and its leaders to cover their faded face used the theory of ‘strategy of restraint’. The entire scenario at the end of the day went to the bag of Pakistan what is a great psychological and moral victory for the Pakistanis, even the Kashmiri freedom fighters. The psychological and moral victory of Pakistan, will boost the courage of the Pakistanis further, while the scar of defeat will burn the psyche of the Indians for decades.#
Contributor: A journalist & researcher